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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 76

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to CLE 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 80-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model