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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-20-T.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 73, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 31, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model