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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 4

Cleveland Browns 13 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 18-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -3. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +2.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.72 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 4, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model