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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.00 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model