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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 98

Cleveland Browns 13 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 7-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to LA 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-J.Natson to LA 47 for no gain (20-T.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -3.98 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 98, worth -5.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 53, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model