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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to CLE 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-83-J.Reynolds.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.45 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.12 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.35 EP
PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model