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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 7-J.Gillan punts 21 yards to LA 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model