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Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2019-09-22 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DEN
39.1%
GB
60.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DEN offense: -0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20
–
GB 23
Projected margin: GB by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

DEN

Ja'Wuan James T Out Knee
Andy Janovich RB Out Pectoral
Joseph Jones LB Out Triceps
Todd Davis LB Questionable Calf
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Foot

GB

Oren Burks LB Out Chest
Lane Taylor G Out Biceps
Montravius Adams DE Doubtful Shoulder
Kyler Fackrell LB Questionable Shoulder
Jimmy Graham TE Questionable Groin
Jake Kumerow WR Questionable Shoulder
Darrius Shepherd WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 16
–
GB 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:22 TD GB (12:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Offside, declined. DEN 0 – GB 6
  • Q2 14:21 TD DEN (14:21) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – GB 7
  • Q2 11:23 FG GB (11:23) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. DEN 7 – GB 10
  • Q2 03:53 FG DEN (3:53) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 10 – GB 10
  • Q2 02:00 TD GB (2:00) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – GB 16
  • Q3 12:15 TD GB (12:15) 62-L.Patrick reported in as eligible. 33-A.Jones right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 10 – GB 23
  • Q3 06:05 TD DEN (6:05) 30-P.Lindsay left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – GB 24
  • Q4 05:53 FG GB (5:53) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. DEN 16 – GB 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 34%

    (10:20) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 44%

    (8:02) 6-J.Scott punts 35 yards to DEN 8, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on GB-28-T.Brown, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 8.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 86%

    (11:23) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (3:53) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:35) 6-J.Scott punts 50 yards to DEN 18, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:13) 6-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to GB 10, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (6:05) 30-P.Lindsay left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:34) 6-J.Scott punts 66 yards to DEN 2, Center-43-H.Bradley. 11-D.Spencer pushed ob at DEN 15 for 13 yards (44-T.Summers). PENALTY on DEN-27-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 2 yards, enforced at DEN 5.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:16) 6-J.Scott punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-37-J.Jackson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:38) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to GB 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 87%

    (5:53) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 17 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (2:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 43 for -6 yards (91-P.Smith).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 81%

    (1:09) 2-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.