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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 23

Green Bay Packers 24 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.24 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP