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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 27

Green Bay Packers 27 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 2-M.Crosby 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +1.44 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model