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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 47

Denver Broncos 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model