Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 24 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(:16) 6-J.Scott punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback. PENALTY on GB-37-J.Jackson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.79 EP
67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model