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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Denver Broncos
4th & 17 at the 51
Denver Broncos 16 – Green Bay Packers 27
What Actually Happened
(2:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 43 for -6 yards (91-P.Smith).
The Three Options
GO
-0.56 EP
What Happened
-
25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.03 EP
- 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.74 EP
KICK
-0.80 EP
- 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
- 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT
-0.54 EP
Model's Pick
- Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.54 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
