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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 68

Denver Broncos 16 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-C.Wadman punts 42 yards to GB 26, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 10-D.Shepherd.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.19 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model