4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 12

Denver Broncos 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 8-B.McManus 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model