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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

SF
40.9%
TB
59.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Jameis Winston (TB) +0.115 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.242 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 22
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

Jalen Hurd WR Out Back
Trent Taylor WR Out Foot
Jimmie Ward CB Out Hand
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Ankle
Weston Richburg C Questionable Knee
Jason Verrett CB Questionable Ankle
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Knee

TB

Justin Evans S Out Achilles
Blaine Gabbert QB Out left Shoulder
Devin White LB Questionable Illness
Mike Evans WR Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 31
–
TB 17

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:12 FG SF (11:12) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – TB 0
  • Q2 08:47 TD TB (8:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 26-T.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 28-V.Hargreaves at SF 15. 28-V.Hargreaves for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – TB 6
  • Q2 02:59 FG SF (2:59) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 6 – TB 7
  • Q3 12:38 TD SF (12:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 13-R.James for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 12 – TB 7
  • Q3 11:53 TD SF (11:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 25-P.Barber INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Sherman at TB 31. 25-R.Sherman for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – TB 7
  • Q3 05:50 TD TB (5:50) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 12-C.Godwin for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-25-R.Sherman, Defensive Holding, declined. SF 20 – TB 13
  • Q4 04:51 FG TB (4:51) 9-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. SF 20 – TB 17
  • Q4 02:21 FG SF (2:21) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. SF 23 – TB 17
  • Q4 02:10 TD SF (2:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon [55-D.Ford] at TB 25. 23-A.Witherspoon for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 29 – TB 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:37) 8-B.Pinion punts 3 yards to TB 33, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-17-J.Watson.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (11:12) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%

    (7:40) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (5:10) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to TB 17, Center-40-C.Holba. 85-B.Wilson to TB 17 for no gain (41-E.Moseley).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (2:59) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 53%

    (2:42) 9-R.Gould 57 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Crossbar, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (13:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Godwin (33-T.Moore).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 18 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:31) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SF 41, Center-40-C.Holba, downed by SF-57-D.Greenlaw.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (4:51) 9-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 77%

    (2:21) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 58%

    (1:01) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Evans (25-R.Sherman) [97-N.Bosa]. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.