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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 8-B.Pinion punts 3 yards to TB 33, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-17-J.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.26 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model