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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 9, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model