Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 96

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(8:31) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to SF 41, Center-40-C.Holba, downed by SF-57-D.Greenlaw.

The Three Options

GO -3.79 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.98 EP
70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model