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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 9-R.Gould 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model