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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model