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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 54 yards to TB 17, Center-40-C.Holba. 85-B.Wilson to TB 17 for no gain (41-E.Moseley).

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.03 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP