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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Godwin (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.17 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.95 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model