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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2019-09-08 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

BUF
54.8%
NYJ
45.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.052 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.114 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 23
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BUF

Andre Roberts WR Out Quadricep
Tyler Kroft TE Doubtful Foot

NYJ

Robby Anderson WR Questionable Calf
Braxton Berrios WR Questionable Hamstring
Trumaine Johnson CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 17
–
NYJ 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:42 TD NYJ (10:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle intended for 10-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 57-C.Mosley at BUF 17. 57-C.Mosley for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 12:01 SAF NYJ (12:01) 20-F.Gore left guard tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (34-B.Poole, 48-J.Jenkins). BUF 0 – NYJ 8
  • Q3 07:06 TD NYJ (7:06) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 26-L.Bell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 0 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 03:52 FG BUF (3:52) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 3 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 10:27 TD BUF (10:27) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 03:07 TD BUF (3:07) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. Penalty on NYJ-27-D.Roberts, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. BUF 16 – NYJ 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 18 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 53%

    (6:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to NYJ 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (1:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 33 for 10 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 45-R.Miles).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:15) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 47%

    (8:58) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to BUF 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 63%

    (3:55) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 37, RECOVERED by NYJ-57-C.Mosley at NYJ 37. 57-C.Mosley to NYJ 37 for no gain (85-L.Smith).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (2:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (:30) 6-K.Vedvik 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to BUF 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-25-T.Cannon.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 85%

    (3:52) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (15:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (2:00) 26-L.Bell left guard to NYJ 35 for 1 yard (97-J.Phillips, 21-J.Poyer).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 65%

    (:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.