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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 56

New York Jets 16 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to BUF 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.09 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP