4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 25

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 4-S.Hauschka 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.11 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model