Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 77

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

(1:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 54 yards to BUF 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 33 for 10 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.64 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.47 EP
77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model