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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 56

New York Jets 16 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.40 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP