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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 55

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:10) 4-L.Edwards punts 53 yards to BUF 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-25-T.Cannon.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.44 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model