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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 17 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.05 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP