4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 27

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:30) 6-K.Vedvik 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.69 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model