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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 5.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

MIA
37.0%
BUF
63.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.137 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.109 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Josh Allen (BUF) -0.143 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.125 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
BUF 22
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIA

T.J. McDonald S Doubtful Ankle
Kiko Alonso LB Questionable Knee
Andre Branch DE Questionable Knee
Ziggy Hood DE Questionable Hamstring
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Knee

BUF

Julian Stanford LB Out Ankle
Deonte Thompson WR Out Toe
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Shoulder
Ryan Lewis CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
BUF 42

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:17 TD BUF (10:17) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 08:38 TD BUF (8:38) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-Z.Jones for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at MIA 15. MIA 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 01:00 TD MIA (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-K.Stills pass short right to 17-R.Tannehill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Original handoff to K.Drake, who then hands off to K.Stills for pass. Caught at BUF 1, nearing corner of end zone. MIA 6 – BUF 14
  • Q2 00:48 TD MIA (:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 80-J.Croom INTERCEPTED by 20-R.Jones at BUF 29. 20-R.Jones for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – BUF 14
  • Q3 09:12 TD BUF (9:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 16-R.Foster for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught 2 yds. into end zone, near sideline. MIA 14 – BUF 20
  • Q3 07:02 TD BUF (7:02) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – BUF 27
  • Q3 01:31 FG MIA (1:31) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 17 – BUF 28
  • Q4 11:23 TD BUF (11:23) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – BUF 34
  • Q4 07:51 TD BUF (7:51) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 11-Z.Jones for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at MIA 2, slanting to corner of end zone. MIA 17 – BUF 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 12 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (13:01) 4-S.Hauschka 42 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (10:53) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to BUF 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for no gain (26-M.Smith, 34-S.Perry).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:13) 8-M.Darr punts 35 yards to MIA 44, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-D.Amendola to BUF 48 for 8 yards (29-S.Neal).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 41%

    (6:31) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to BUF 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:33) 8-M.Darr punts 32 yards to MIA 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 80-D.Amendola to MIA 49 for 1 yard (29-S.Neal).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 74%

    (1:47) R.Tannehill at WR. (Shotgun) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage left guard to BUF 25 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:58) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to BUF 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at BUF 22 for 9 yards (34-S.Perry).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

    (10:46) 17-J.Allen up the middle to MIA 5 for 3 yards (56-D.Godchaux).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (1:31) 7-J.Sanders 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (15:00) 8-M.Darr punts 44 yards to MIA 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:39) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-34-S.Perry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:13) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to BUF 48, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-38-B.Bolden.