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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 2-M.Haack punts 32 yards to BUF 11, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.19 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.32 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model