Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 14

(13:58) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to BUF 13, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at BUF 22 for 9 yards (34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.23 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 67, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model