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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 28 – Miami Dolphins 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 8-M.Darr punts 44 yards to MIA 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model