Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 62

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

(10:53) 2-M.Haack punts 36 yards to BUF 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 26 for no gain (26-M.Smith, 34-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.91 EP
77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model