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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:47) R.Tannehill at WR. (Shotgun) Direct snap to 27-K.Ballage. 27-K.Ballage left guard to BUF 25 for 5 yards (49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.76 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model