Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 17 – Buffalo Bills 42

(6:13) 2-M.Haack punts 25 yards to BUF 48, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-38-B.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model