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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 23

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 4-S.Hauschka 42 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.19 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model