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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

LAC
57.8%
DEN
42.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Case Keenum (DEN) -0.011 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.240 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

LAC

Sean Culkin TE Questionable Back

DEN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 23
–
DEN 9

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:44 TD LAC (5:44) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 23, RECOVERED by LAC-51-K.Emanuel at DEN 18. 51-K.Emanuel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – DEN 0
  • Q2 00:15 FG DEN (:15) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. LAC 7 – DEN 3
  • Q3 03:51 TD LAC (3:51) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 81-M.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – DEN 3
  • Q4 10:17 TD DEN (10:17) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 32-A.Janovich for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 14 – DEN 9
  • Q4 06:01 TD LAC (6:01) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 22 – DEN 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 21%

    (11:22) 3-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 29%

    (8:25) 5-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (6:51) 3-C.Wadman punts 55 yards to LAC 21, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 21 for no gain (27-B.Langley). PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Wilson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 21.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 16 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 57%

    (2:09) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (:16) 5-D.Jones punts 39 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 35 for 3 yards (50-H.Pullard). PENALTY on DEN-35-D.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 32.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 41%

    (12:13) 3-C.Wadman punts 33 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:03) 5-D.Jones punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (:15) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 36%

    (11:31) 3-C.Wadman punts 35 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 20-D.King.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:31) 5-D.Jones punts 49 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%

    (15:00) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to LAC 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-27-B.Langley.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 20 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:30) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to DEN 41, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 44 for 3 yards (34-D.Watt).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 57%

    (3:15) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton to LAC 30 for 8 yards (23-R.Jenkins).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 31 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 74%

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 11-R.Cracraft. Penalty on DEN, Illegal Shift, declined.