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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Denver Broncos
4th & 7 at the 53
Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0
What Actually Happened
(11:22) 3-C.Wadman punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.46 EP
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.29 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.75 EP
KICK
-1.49 EP
- 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
- 79% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT
-0.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.24 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
