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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 31

Denver Broncos 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass incomplete deep right to 11-R.Cracraft. Penalty on DEN, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.86 EP