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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 38

Denver Broncos 9 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:15) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-D.Hamilton to LAC 30 for 8 yards (23-R.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.69 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model