Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Denver Broncos 3

(6:31) 5-D.Jones punts 49 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model