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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 44

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 3-C.Wadman punts 33 yards to LAC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.57 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model