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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:16) 5-D.Jones punts 39 yards to DEN 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-R.Cracraft to DEN 35 for 3 yards (50-H.Pullard). PENALTY on DEN-35-D.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP