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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 47

Denver Broncos 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-C.Wadman punts 38 yards to LAC 9, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-27-B.Langley.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model