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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CIN
23.9%
PIT
76.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.255 vs Jeff Driskel (CIN) -0.050 EPA/dropback
  • CIN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.132 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 18
–
PIT 27
Projected margin: PIT by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CIN

Vontaze Burfict LB Out Concussion
Tony McRae CB Out Hamstring

PIT

Vince Williams LB Doubtful Toe
Antonio Brown WR Questionable Not Injury Related
James Conner RB Questionable Ankle
Sean Davis S Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 13
–
PIT 16

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:50 TD CIN (12:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 36-S.Williams at CIN 42. 36-S.Williams for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 02:17 FG CIN (2:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PENALTY on CIN-62-A.Redmond, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. CIN 10 – PIT 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG PIT (:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 10 – PIT 3
  • Q3 03:56 TD PIT (3:56) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – PIT 9
  • Q4 08:40 FG PIT (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 10 – PIT 13
  • Q4 06:20 FG CIN (6:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 13 – PIT 13
  • Q4 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 13 – PIT 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 25%

    (8:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 40 yards to CIN 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-57-K.Canaday, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 10.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:44) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 21, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CIN 29, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-44-T.Matakevich. PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 18 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (1:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 18 for 10 yards (47-C.Worley).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 31%

    (8:54) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 30 yards to CIN 17, Center-57-K.Canaday. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 18 for 1 yard (34-Te.Edmunds, 20-C.Sutton).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%

    (2:17) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. PENALTY on CIN-62-A.Redmond, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 34%

    (1:14) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 85-X.Grimble pushed ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (30-J.Bates).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (:04) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 15 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:38) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 23%

    (12:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CIN 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 29%

    (6:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 34 yards to CIN 14, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson. PENALTY on PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 14.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:30) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to PIT 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 26 for 4 yards (32-M.Walton, 42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (1:01) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 48 yards to PIT 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 63%

    (11:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels to CIN 29 for 6 yards (59-N.Vigil).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

    (8:40) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (6:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 17 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep right to 80-J.Malone. Coverage by 24-Sensabaugh.