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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(1:14) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 85-X.Grimble pushed ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (30-J.Bates).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model