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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 35

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 38-J.Samuels to CIN 29 for 6 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.68 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model